Variability of wave power production of the M4 machine at two energetic open ocean locations: Off Albany, Western Australia and at EMEC, Orkney, UK

Since intermittent and highly variable power supply is undesirable, quantifying power yield fluctuations of wave energy converters (WECs) aids with assessment of potential deployment sites. This paper presents analysis of 3-hourly, monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual variability of power output of the M4 WEC. We compare expected performance from deployment at two wave energy hotspots: off Albany on the south-western coast of Australia and off the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) at Orkney, UK. We use multi-decadal wave hindcast data to predict the power that would have been generated by M4 WEC machines. The M4 machine, as a floating articulated device which extracts energy from flexing motion about a hinge, is sized according to a characteristic wavelength of the local wave climate. Using probability distributions, production duration curves, and coefficients of variation we demonstrate larger variability of the 3-hourly power yield at Orkney compared to Albany. At longer timescales, seasonal trends are highlighted through average monthly power values. From a continuity of supply perspective, we investigate occurrences of low production at three different threshold levels and calculate duration and likelihood of such events. Orkney is found to suffer from more persistent lows, causing a more intermittent power output. We also consider the effect of machine size on its power performance. Smaller machines are found to more effectively smooth out the stochastic nature of the underlying wave resource.