Simple Nutrient-Based Rules vs. a Nutritionally Rich Plant-Centered Diet in Prediction of Future Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke: Prospective Observational Study in the US

To better understand nutrition paradigm shift from nutrients to foods and dietary patterns, we compared associations of a nutrient-based blood cholesterol-lowering diet vs. a food-based plant-centered diet with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Participants were 4701 adults aged 18-30 years and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline, followed for clinical events from 1985 and 86 to 2018. A plant-centered diet was represented by higher A Priori Diet Quality Score (APDQS). A blood cholesterol-lowering diet was represented by lower Keys Score. Proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR). Higher APDQS showed a nutrient-dense composition that is low in saturated fat but high in fiber, vitamins and minerals. Keys Score and APDQS changes were each inversely associated with concurrent plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) change. Over follow-up, 116 CHD and 80 stroke events occurred. LDL-C predicted CHD, but not stroke. APDQS, but not Keys Score, predicted lower risk of CHD and of stroke. Adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for each 1-SD higher APDQS were 0.73 (0.55-0.96) for CHD and 0.70 (0.50-0.99) for stroke. Neither low dietary fat nor low dietary carbohydrate predicted these events. Our findings support the ongoing shift in diet messages for cardiovascular prevention.