Different Material Footprint Trends between China and the World in 2007-2012 Explained by Construction- and Manufacturing-associated Investment

Economic prosperity is vital to human development but relies heavily on material extraction, which causes environmental degradation. To successfully decouple growth from degradation, it is essential to identify the primary drivers of countries' material footprints (MFs). However, such understanding remains limited due to the complexities of investment- versus consumption-driven growth. Here, we focus on the MF of China between 2007 and 2012, which was responsible for 24%–30% of global material use. We adopt input-output models that consider trade and classify investment/consumption to estimate, at the province level, the relationship between MFs and the Human Development Index (HDI). Results show that during 2007–2012, China's per capita MF mirrored its HDI and increased by nearly 20%. This is especially prominent in poorer provinces. We further find that it was investments, particularly capital investments associated with construction and manufacturing, that dominated China's MF rather than a consumption-driven demand. Given vast infrastructure gaps in emerging economies and post-pandemic investment plans, these findings emphasize the need for a better understanding of the drivers of growth.