The Decadal Shift in Tc-Induced Precipitation Over China

This study examines changes in tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall and the associated contributing factors over China during 1960–2018. The dominant mode of TC rainfall decreases from south to north, with a maximum in Guangdong Province. The associated time series of principal components reveals clear interdecadal variation, and three change points can be identified based on Lepage analysis: the late 1970s, early 1990s, and early 2000s. Before the 2000s, TC rainfall patterns are dominated by different processes in different subregions of South China. The maximum TC-induced rainfall in South China is attributed mainly to the TC rainfall frequency effect and TC genesis effect. TC-induced rainfall in East China is modulated primarily by TC rainfall intensity and TC track. After the 2000s, TCs north of the Yangtze River increase, especially in Shandong Province. Further examination of TC passage frequency reveals that increasing TC rainfall in the north of southeastern China is contributed largely by a northwestward shift in TC tracks.