A Model-Based Analysis to Predict and Control the Dynamics of COVID-19

COVID-19 has become one of the most severe health issues of the twenty-first century. More than 30 million people have been affected by this deadly disease and more than nine lakh people have been died due to this disease worldwide. Government authorities are forced to impose lockdown in their respective countries. In a word, COVID-19 has stopped the natural flow of life in worldwide. In this situation, scientists and researchers of different fields are trying to find out appropriate mitigating measures for COVID-19. However, there is no approved pharmaceutical measures like treatment or vaccination available to the health workers. So, the governments are strengthening on the non-pharmaceutical measures like maintaining social distance, use of face mask and sanitizer and on lockdown policy. In this scenario, determining the dynamics of the disease can help governments, health workers, scientists to decide future action to be taken in order to tackle the disease. In this chapter, we have proposed and analyzed an SEAIR type fractional order epidemic model in order to investigate the transmission mechanisms of the COVID-19. We have studied the non-negativity and boundedness of the solutions, and the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the system. The explicit expression of the most important parameter, namely the basic reproduction number is derived and the further investigations of the system are performed in terms of the basic reproduction number. Apart from studying the local dynamics of the fractional order system, we have considered the environmental fluctuations in the deterministic system. We have studied the stochastic stability of the infected equilibrium points. Finally, important results are illustrated through numerical simulation works.