Lack of relationship between preoperative measures of the severity of cirrhosis and short‐term survival after liver transplantation

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of clinical measures of the severity of disease in cirrhotic patients who were candidates for liver transplantation at our institution. The records of the 132 cirrhotic patients who were candidates for a first transplantation between January 1, 1987, and December 31, 1994, were reviewed. One hundred nine patients (82.6%) received grafts, and 23 (17.4%) died while on the waiting list. The variables examined included level of medical urgency at the time of enlistment, date of transplantation, serum creatinine level, variables that constitute the Child-Pugh score and Shaw's risk score (serum bilirubin and albumin, prothrombin time, ascites, encephalopathy, nutritional status, age, and operative blood loss), and 6-month survival status after transplantation. The proportion of patients who died awaiting a graft increased as a function of the Child-Pugh score at enlistment (score 5-6, 0%, n = 6; score 7-9, 7%, n = 54; score 10-11, 18%, n = 33; score 12-15, 33%, n = 39; P = .01). Six-month survival rates after transplantation were similar irrespective of the Child-Pugh score or Shaw's risk score. Stepwise multiple logistic regression models identified the degree of ascites, serum bilirubin, and operative blood loss as significant variables for the prediction of overall mortality 6 months posttransplantation (model chi 2 = 12.8; P = .025; r = 0.32), but the model explained only 10% of the outcomes observed. We concluded that the Child-Pugh score is a valid prognostic index for survival up to the time of transplantation for cirrhotic patients on the waiting list; however, clinical measures of the severity of cirrhosis are poor predictors of 6-month survival after transplantation.