Prediction and Early Warning of Fruit Tree Freezing Damage in Winter due to Low Temperature in Fujian Province

Based on the meteorological data from 1963 to 2004 in Fujian Province,the circulation system of the low temperature weather in winter(November to February next year) was analyzed.The results showed that the 57.1% of the low temperature weather in winter was from west way.The intensity and way of the cold high atmospheric pressure center,Φ568(the latitude at the nodical point of the 5680 geopotential meter line with the 120°E line in the 500hPa high altitude) and Φ850(the latitude at the nodical point of the 0°C temperature line with the 120°E line in the 850hPa high altitude) were closely related to the minimum temperature.The equation of short-term forecast of low temperature weather for Fuzhou,Xiamen and Shaowu was established by stepwise regression analysis.The detemperature rate was estimated by cloud cover,wind velocity.humidity(N20,F20,U20)at 20:00 o'clock.The index of freezing damage of different fruit tree varieties was determined and integrated to the early warning systems.