Estimation of Return Negative Storm Surge Induced by Extratropical Cyclones in the Eastern Area of Liaodong Bay

Base on hindcasted data of 76 extratropical cyclone processes,10 samples are taken by 10 engineering sites in eastern section of Liaodong Bay.Considering the influence of extratropical cyclones,a Poisson maximum entropy distribution is utilized to do long term stochastic analysis of extreme negative storm surge elevations.The 100-year and 50-year return values are 304cm and 286cm,respectively.Because of the effect of topography in this studied area,the design negative storm surge elevations in the northern part increased in a relatively larger extend that those in the southern part.