ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIFFERENT VARIABLES INVOLVED IN A DAMAGE PROGRESSION PROBABILITY MODEL

Nowadays risk based designs as well as reliable maintenance strategies are essential when dealing with coastal structures. In that sense, the probability of failure due to hydraulic instability of the armor layer is one of the main issues in rubble mound breakwaters, and so is improving the knowledge on the deterioration rate of the armor layer. In 2012 Castillo et al. made some suggestions on how to build consistent stochastic damage models and proposed a comprehensive Damage Progression Probability Model (DPPM) with general validity, depending on a pair of parameters for each of the three major entities involved in the problem: structure, wave action and initial damage. Based on experimental data, two different calibrations of these parameters are accomplished in the present paper, allowing an initial evaluation of the specific influence of each entity in the model.