Research on Quantitative Model of Energy Transition Path Based on Scenario Analysis

The quantitative model of energy transition based on STIRPAT and Monte-Carlo method is proposed in this paper. The key influencing factors and target elements of the energy transition are analyzed, the plan objectives of the energy transition strategy are characterized by the target elements, the time projection of each target element in each stage is obtained according to the plan, and the relationship between the influencing factors and the target elements is established with the extended STIRPAT, through the analysis of the historical data of each index element by Ridge regression analysis, the normalized coefficients of each variable in STIRPAT are determined, and the factor-objective regression model is obtained. Based on the Monte-Carlo scenario analysis method, the energy transition paths are generated to get the final scenario of each path development. Finally, the optimal path of energy transition development is selected by comparing the minimum mean variance of the energy development goal and the planning target