An integrated rough group multicriteria decision-making model for the ex-ante prioritization of infrastructure projects: The Serbian Railways case

Railway transportation is the backbone of the economy significantly influences mobility and life quality in many developed and developing countries. Railway infrastructure investment problems are inherently complex and involve multiple and often conflicting criteria in an uncertain socio-economic environment. This study presents an integrated rough group FUll COnsistency Method (FUCOM) and Multi-Atributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis (MAIRCA) method for railway infrastructure project evaluation and prioritization. The FUCOM method evaluates the selection criteria through a simple algorithm, and the MAIRCA method prioritizes alternative projects through structured and systematic mathematical computations. Sensitivity analysis measures the impact of the criteria weights on the final results. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient assesses the effect of criteria weight variations on alternative rankings' stability. This study's main contribution is developing and implementing a comprehensive and robust framework for ex-ante evaluation and prioritization of railway infrastructure projects. A case study in Serbian Railways demonstrates the proposed integrated framework's applicability and efficacy in evaluating the railway infrastructure projects for Serbian Railways.