Forecasting method of clean energy development potential considering sector coupling

Sector coupling includes not only the coupling within energy sectors such as electricity, heat and gas, but also the coupling between energy sector and transportation sector, construction sector and industrial sector. This article introduces a method for measuring the development potential of clean energy based on sector coupling. First, the analysis model of electric energy substitution potential is constructed, the analysis object is determined, and the analysis object is quantified. On the basis of the definition of clean energy development potential, an IPAT model for electric energy substitution is constructed to realize the comprehensive evaluation of clean energy. Secondly, based on Markov theory to realize the sub-path calculation of the development potential of clean energy. Finally, based on the IPAT model and the decoupling theoretical model, this paper sets up three different alternative scenarios to make a more comprehensive prediction and analysis of the medium and long-term clean energy development potential, and applies the introduced measurement methods to the calculation of China’s clean energy development potential. The results show the effectiveness of the algorithm in the calculation of the development potential of clean energy based on sector coupling.