Occurrence of Natural Disasters Correlates with Ischaemic Heart Disease Mortality at the Global Level: An Ecological Trend Study in 193 Countries

Background: Natural disaster is considered to be associated with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to explore the association between natural disaster and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality at the global level. Methods: Country-specific data on natural disaster impact (occurrence, casualties and total damage), IHD death and years of life lost (YLL) rates and socioeconomic variables were obtained for 193 countries from open sources for the period 1990 to 2017. An ecological trend study was conducted, and correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression were used to investigate the association among the variables and identify the determinants of IHD death and YLL rates. Findings: The trend in the occurrence of natural disasters between two periods (1990 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017) was positively correlated with trends in the IHD death and YLL rates. Significant correlations were found between the occurrence of natural disasters and the IHD death rate and the YLL rate for both sexes (p<0.05). Multiple linear regression revealed independent association between disaster occurrence and the IHD death rate for males, females and both sexes together (standardized coefficients=0.163, 0.357 and 0.241, p<0.05), similar associations were found for the YLL rate (standardized coefficients=0.194, 0.233 and 0.189, p<0.05). Interpretation: Our study demonstrated the independent association between natural disaster and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality at the global level. Both males and females were vulnerable to natural disasters in terms of IHD. These results provide evidence for policy making and resource allocation for disaster response and IHD burden. Funding Statement: This study was funded by the Health Commission of Sichuan Province (19PJ207), the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province (2018JY0389, 2018ZR0007, 2019YFS0443) and the Deyang Science and Technology Bureau (FY202008). Declaration of Interests: None. Ethics Approval Statement: Not required.