Agricultural zoning and recommendations for the seeding of wheat (Triticum species) in the Central-Southern Mesoregion of Parana State in Brazil

Wheat is one of the most cultivated cereals and is essential for human and animal feeding. Since it is a sensible species to the meteorologic conditions, the climate changes can alter all its cultivation areas and practices known in the present agriculture. This paper aims to make the zoning of climatic risk for agriculture for the wheat crop (Triticum species) and recommend the planting window for the central-southern Mesoregion of Parana State. The crop's climate risk was evaluated by several variables: Temperature (minimum and average), precipitation, water deficit, and frost. The entire Mesoregion presents aptness for wheat cultivation. The water demand for the species is supplied in all tested scenarios. The risk is also not identified for precipitation. The average temperature in a section of the region is lower than the recommended, but the seeding can be shifted to seasons with increasing temperatures. The entire region presents a high probability of frost occurrence. Because wheat is a winter crop, seeding during this period could be beneficial if late frosts are avoided, mainly during August and September. Thus, seeding is recommended in small intervals in the region, varying from May 21 to September. Key words: Climate aptness, climate risk, agricultural planning, climate change.