The Integrated Energy System Optimal Scheduling Method Considering Off-grid Risk

During the IES on-grid operation process, the reliability of power supply of the large power grid is extremely high, resulting in a waste of battery energy storage (BES) reserve capacity which ensure independent power supply for important loads. This paper conducts in-depth research on this problem and puts a complete set of solution. Firstly, it advances an on-grid/off-grid load forecasting model for a certain IES to deduce the minimum reserve capacity of BES that meets the energy demand of important loads based on energy balance principle. Then, with the inclusion of various factors of weather types, load rate levels and the off-grid types, it presents an unplanned off-grid probability statistical method. On this basis, the off-grid loss model and the on-grid income model are established, and combining with the aforementioned probability statistical method, the IES optimal scheduling method considering off-grid risk is offered. Finally, this paper uses PSO to solve the day-ahead optimal scheme, and then uses MPC rolling optimization to correct errors so as to track optimal scheme. With a simulation analysis, the great economic value in application of the method in this paper is verified.