A review of the adaptability of hydrological models for drought forecasting

Abstract. Drought intensity and frequency are increasing in recent years in multiple regions across the world due to global climate change and consequently drought forecasting research has received more and more attention. Previous studies on drought forecasting mostly focus on meteorological drought based on precipitation and temperature. However, the trend of predicting agriculture and hydrological drought, which consider soil moisture and runoff, have developed rapidly in recent years. Hydrological drought forecasting is based on the hydrological models and the model structure plays a role to improve predictions. This study scrutinized more than 50 hydrological models, including lumped models, semi-distributed models, distributed models, surface water and groundwater coupled models, to explore the adaptability of hydrological models in drought simulation and forecasting. The advantages and disadvantages of typical models, such as DTVGM, GWAVA, and HEC-HMS models were analyzed to provide valuable reference for drought forecasting model development. Future work aims at improving the hydrological models to simulate the drought processes and make better prediction.