System Reserve Optimization Considering Uncertainties of Wind Power and Load Forecasting

The randomness, intermittence, and fluctuation of wind power bring new challenges to the secure operations of power systems. The reserve capacity scheduling and allocation are crucial to maintain the system balance and reliability. This paper analyzes and models the uncertainties of wind power and load forecasting errors in power systems. An idea similar to the construction of a capacity outage probability table is adopted to convert the complex and changeable uncertainty factors into multiple identified system operating scenarios. With interruptible loads and electric vehicles providing upward reserve and downward reserve respectively, a system reserve capacity optimization model is proposed, which aims at minimizing the system operational economic cost considering constraints on active power balance, reserve, and output limit, ramp rate limit of generators. Numerical experiments are conducted to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed reserve optimization method.