Livestock Water and Land Productivity in Kenya and Their Future Implications for Resource Use

Population growth and rising affluence increase the demand for agricultural commodities. Associated growth in production increases dependency on natural resources in countries that attempt to meet part or all the new demand locally. This study assesses the impact of changing meat and milk production on natural resource use in Kenya under three plausible scenarios of socio-economic development, namely Business-As-Usual (BAU), Sustainable Development (SDP) and Kenya Vision 2030 (V2030) scenarios. The IMPACT model is used to develop projected livestock production parameters for meat and milk. The BAU and SDP represent standard scenarios for Kenya of a global economic model, IMPACT, while V2030 incorporates in the model features specific to Kenya’s medium-term national development plan. We use calculations of water footprint and land footprint as resource use indicators to quantify the anticipated appropriation of water and land resources for meat and milk production and trade by 2040. Though camel dairy production numbers increase the most by quadrupling between 2005 and 2040, it is cattle dairy production that significantly determined gains in production between the scenarios. Productivity gains under the SDP scenario does not match the investments made thereby leading to only slightly better values for water and land productivity than those achieved under the BAU scenario. Improvement in land productivity is the most dramatic for shoat milk production in the arid and semi-arid systems under the V2030 relative to the BAU scenario and is the least marked for milk production by cattle in the humid system under the V2030 relative to the BAU scenario. By quantifying water and land productivity across heterogenous production systems, our findings are aimed at aiding decision-makers in Kenya and other developing countries to understand the implication of strategies aimed at increasing domestic agricultural and livestock production on water and land resource both locally and through trade with other countries.