Assessing the impact of episodic flare emissions on ozone formation in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria area of Texas

Ozone formation due to episodic industrial emissions was modeled for the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) region in Texas. A total of more than 1000 synthetic emission scenarios were modeled, accounting for different sources, emission magnitudes, emission compositions, duration and timing of the emission events, meteorology at the time of the emissions, and location of the emission source. Episodic emissions consistent with the characteristics of flaring resulted in the greatest amount of ozone formation. An index, based on incremental reactivity, for characterizing the ozone formation potential of flaring emissions was developed using the synthetic scenarios and was applied to the ~4500 flares that report emissions in the state of Texas. The flares with the highest ranking index in the HGB were identified and additional modeling was performed on the ozone formation potential of these flares. If these flares are modeled with their annual average emission rates, the maximum increase in maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8) formation associated with flaring emissions is <1 ppb. If, however, it is assumed that emissions from flaring are episodic, rather than continuous, and temporal patterns consistent with previous data collection on flare emission variability in the HGB are applied, MDA8 enhancements associated with flaring emissions are >10 ppb for multiple scenarios. This analysis suggests that, for flares emissions that have high ozone formation potential, the temporal patterns of flare emissions should be accounted for in developing ozone mitigation plans.