Non-parametric Trend of Drought and Its Future Applicability: A Case Study of Sagar Station

Drought is a dominant factor for major deficiency of water, especially for agriculture. This study deals to understand the changing pattern of key climatic variables along with the PET and understanding the drought status of Sagar District, Madhya Pradesh, India, which is also a part of Bundelkhand; a severe drought-affected region of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Water resources clearly affected due to the change in temperature and rainfall patterns. Hence, the increase in temperature would result in higher evapotranspiration rate and higher need for agricultural water requirement. To achieve the rainfall pattern, trends in monthly, annual, and seasonal rainfall time series from 1977 to 2010 have been examined by Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope for Sagar District. There is a negative trend of rainfall seen in the month of August with Sen’s slope value as −5.65 mm/year. PET evaluated using the Hargreaves method for Sagar Station using minimum and maximum temperature data of duration 1989–2013. Trend analysis of drought has been assessed by using the same method used for rainfall trends. Two drought indices, SPI and RDI, are used for the study area. A T-test is performed for yearly values of SPI and RDI (1989–2013) and statistical significance is checked for the mean values.