Did the COVID-19 Lockdown in India Succeed? A Mathematical Study

In this study, we estimate the basic reproduction number (\(R_0\)) for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic for 10 seriously affected states and for the whole country for the lockdown period. For this, we formulate a SEIQHR mathematical model and fitted it to cumulative COVID-19 cases. The Government of India implemented the first phase of nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020 to April 14, 2020 and extended the same from April 15, 2020 to May 3, 2020. We measure the effectiveness of the nationwide lockdown on the spread of COVID-19 in India. For this, we have estimated the basic reproduction number for three phases; namely March 14–31, 2020 (Phase I), April 1–15, 2020 (Phase II), and April 16–30, 2020 (Phase III). Our study finds that, in all the cases, the value of the \(R_0\) is minimum at the end of phase III. This demonstrates the success of the implementation of lockdown in reducing the value of the basic reproduction number.