Reliability Assessment of Seals Used in Propulsion Module of an Autonomous Unmanned Vehicle Using Markov Chains

For the successful operation of an autonomous unmanned vehicle, also known as AUV, it is imperative to have an apt design of its hull and other components such as seals and housings to prevent all possible failures due to increasing atmospheric pressure at greater depths below sea level. Thus, each phase, right from the design to the termination phase, involves a series of crucial steps. These steps are sequentially arranged by implementing a mathematical model known as Markov chains. Based on heuristic and experimental data, we analyzed the reliability of the seals used in the propulsion module of the vehicle, by assigning transition probabilities to each step whether recurring, non-recurring, or terminating. The proposed model consists of a total of seven states. These states are then plotted in a square matrix also known as the “distribution matrix”. Successive iterations are then obtained based on an initial probability vector. This quantitative analysis of the iterations explores the pattern in which the entire procedure unfolds with time and predicts the success rate and the risk involved in the process when the system attains a steady-state vector.