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Bayesian Disaggregated Forecasts: Internal Migration in Iceland

Junni L. Zhang,John Bryant

Developments in Demographic ForecastingThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis（2020）

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Abstract
Abstract Local-level demographic forecasts are in high demand. Constructing local-level forecasts requires confronting the problems of random variation and sparse data. Bayesian methods offer promising solutions to both these problems. We illustrate using the example of inter-regional migration in Iceland.
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Key words
iceland,forecasts,internal migration,bayesian
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