Food insecurity, hoarding behavior, and environmental harshness do not predict weight changes during the COVID-19 pandemic

Final publication (Open Access): http://ishe.org/volume-35-2020/food-insecurity-hoarding-behavior-and-environmental-harshness-do-not-predict-weight-changes-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/ (DOI: https://doi.org/10.22330/he/35/122-136)The COVID-19 pandemic not only presents a medical and psychological stressor but has also led to alterations in public life that many perceived as threatening, including lowered incomes and job insecurity. A symptom of collective worrying were so-called panic- or ‘hamster purchases’, where people stockpiled food in large amounts as governmental restrictions in response to the pandemic were introduced.This behavior indicated subjective ‘food insecurity’ in many individuals at a time when loss of income could also lead to potential real food insecurity for some. Since both perceived and actual food insecurity as well as stress is thought to facilitate weight gain as an adaptive response, this study aims at investigating body weight during these uncertain times. Specifically, we model the effects of both psychological and environmental factors such as food insecurity, hoarding behavior and loss of income on body on weight as lockdown measures are introduced and loosened in four European countries.While there are no systematic changes in body weight over the observed period, there is inter-individual variation in weight changes. However, contrary to our hypothesis, results show that neither food insecurity, hamster purchases, nor loss of income are predictors of weight change or BMI, and none of our machine learning models outperformed a trivial predictor.In conclusion, this study does not provide support for the notion that perceived food insecurity can predict weight gain or a higher BMI at a time of environmental uncertainties. This suggests that acute alterations in appetite reported upon triggering environmental harshness have no effect beyond that moment. Rather, life-history strategies acquired early on seem to remain stable during this crisis with respect to food consumption and weight.