Earthquake prediction, forecasting, & early warning

This chapter is an introduction to earthquake prediction studies. Although no one can yet predict the time, location, or size of impending earthquakes, broadly defined, earthquake prediction remains important. The chapter includes a description of key conceptual models (time- and slip-predicable, etc.) that build on the theory of elastic rebound and provide a set of tools for discussing earthquake occurrence and recurrence. Paleoseismic and geodetic observations are introduced because any discussion of long-term deformation patterns and earthquake interactions requires observations from a range of earthquake-related geosciences. Seismic hazard estimation is also introduced along with discussions of earthquake interactions and triggering. The chapter includes a review of precursory phenomena that have captured attention for many years but remain variable any individual event. Finally, we review earthquake early warning systems that have been developed, deployed, and refined over the last few decades.