Predicting Success In NCAA Division I Football Skill-players Based On Physical Performance Test Results

A recent study looked at the relationship between performance variables and success in the NFL among players who participated in NFL combine events. Our aim was to looked at a similar relationship among college football players in skill-positions, who aspire to make an NCAA Division I football starting roster. PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to identify performance variables that predict success among aspiring Division I (D-I) college football skill-position players. METHODS: Archival data were analyzed from 712 college football skill-position players, which focused on their best physical test results, who played during a period from 1987-2015 at a highly ranked NCAA D-I university. Players were categorized by position either as offensive skill-position players (OSP which includes running backs, quarterbacks and wide receivers; n=311); defensive backs (DB; n=157); or linebackers, tight ends and fullbacks (LTEFB; n= 244). Data were collected at various intervals throughout an athlete’s playing career, and included personal best measures in height (HT), body mass (BM), 1 repetition maximum (1RM) in the squat (SQ), bench press (BP), power clean (PC), push jerk (PJ), vertical jump (VJ), sit and reach test (SR), 40-yard dash (40YD), 10-yard dash (10YD), and 20-yard shuttle (20YS). All data were collected by the same strength coach over the 29-year period. Success was determined by three criteria: level 1 included players who never made the starting line-up in their college careers, level 2 were players that made the starting line-up but never made it to the NFL, and level 3 were player that played at least one full year in the NFL. Data were analyzed using ordinal regression analysis. RESULTS: The statistically significant predictors by position were as follows: for OSP, VJ (P<0.01), PC (P<0.05), and 40YD (P<0.01); for DB, BM (P< 0.05), and 40YD (P< 0.01); and for LTEFB, BM (P<0.05), 40YD (P< 0.01), and PJ (P< 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that it may be possible to predict the success of NCAA Division I football skill-position players in the positions tested, by looking at selected performance parameters. For OSP, lower-body power and explosive hips combined with speed are important; for DB it’s large body mass combined with speed; and for LTEFB, explosive hips combined with body size and speed are important.