A practical assessment of pipeline risk under epistemic uncertainty: a hydro-technical threat

In formulating integrity decisions for oil pipelines near water bodies against stresses and strains beyond their intended designs, the estimated risk in terms of potential loss of containment and adverse consequences is a critical task for safe operations. In practical integrity situations, the epistemic uncertainty in the estimated risk is equally significant and relevant as aleatory uncertainties. It is the integrity engineers’ responsibility to provide a proper reliability and risk technical information to the decision maker and stakeholders in order to achieve the highest level of safety. This paper discusses a process of practical analysis to evaluate the risk distribution associated with imperfect information and epistemic uncertainties.