Policy Option Simulation in Socio-ecological Systems

Social-ecological systems (SESs) i.e., systems linking human behavior and environmental dynamics, are characterized as complex, dynamic, and heterogeneous systems. A comprehensive policy simulation in SESs has to consider all these properties. In this paper, we present a conceptual analysis on key aspects of policy simulation in SESs and introduce a combined use of fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) and agent-based modeling (ABM) methods as an approach to cover those aspects. We illustrate the applicability of this combined method for policy simulation in the case of a farming community facing water scarcity.