Using a novel grey model to forecast the unconventional water sources supply volume in China

Abstract Unconventional water resources are an important part of fresh water resources, which can help relieve pressure of water supply and further a sustainable development could be achieved, especially in China. In this paper, a novel optimize fractional order polynomial grey model is proposed, which is abbreviated as OFOPGM (1,1). The novel grey model is validated and calibrated and forecast the unconventional water sources supply volume in China. The forecast results prove the validity and practicability of the novel model.