Land use/cover changes and spatial distribution pattern of rice field decreasing trend in Serang Regency, Banten Province

Abstract Serang is one regency in Banten Province which is located near to Jabodetabek, the largest metropolitan area in Indonesia. The economic growth at its periphery has a negative impact on the decreasing of rice field in the regency. Objectives of this research are: (1) to analyze decreasing of rice field in Serang Regency from 2006 to 2018 and to project land-use change in 2030, and (2) to identify spatial distribution pattern of rice field in Serang Regency. Land-use change was conducted by ArcGIS10.3 using Landsat images. Identification of spatial distribution pattern of rice field was conducted by Moran and LISA (Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation). Meanwhile, land-use change projection was conducted using CA-Markov. Results show that during 2006-2018 there has been an increase of built-up area (7,295 hectares) and decreasing of rice field from 60,949 hectares to 54,232 hectares. A larger decreasing rice field occurred at districts located at the eastern part of Serang Regency. The result of land-use change projection shows the increase of built-up area and rice field conversion in Serang Regency in 2030. Decreasing rice field in the long term may threaten food security at the local and regional level.