Modelling of climate conditions in forest vegetation zones in Malawi

Adverse impact of climate change on the environment has been widely reported. Malawi has not been spared from the adverse impacts of climate change as evidenced by recent floods and drought. This study was conducted to assess the impact of climate change on forest type, forest living biomass, basal area and number of stems. Holdridge Life Zone model and GAP Formind modified were used for the assessment. The results show that there are currently two forest vegetation zones occurring in Malawi (2011-2040). These include: tropical dry forest and tropical very dry forest. In mid-century (2041-2070) thorn woodland forest will emerge, while tropical dry forest will disappear in end-century (2071-2100). There will be a significant decrease in forest living biomass (1,000 kg ha-1yr-1) and basal area (43.5%) from near century to end-century. On the other hand, there will be a significant increase (5 stems ha-1yr-1) in number stems from near century to end-century. The study has demonstrated that future climate change will be conducive to growth and expansion of very dry forest vegetation zone, which causes positive effects on reforestation planning and adaptive strategies in this region. Therefore, the study suggests the following as some possible strategies to adapt climate change: promotion of natural regeneration of tree species, promotion of tree site matching, production and promotion of new tree seed varieties; and seed banking for drought resistant tree species.