Assessment of Power System Low-carbon Transition Pathways Based on China’s Energy Revolution Strategy

The low-carbon transition of the power system plays critical role in energy system transition. In 2016, the Chinese government proposed an ambitious low-carbon energy transition strategy by 2030. However, relevant researches remain at the level of qualitative analysis. This paper proposes a quantitative analysis approach for assessing China’s power sector transition strategy based on a dynamic simulation model. This appraisal method translates the transition target of non-fossil energy generation in 2030 into a series of plausible pathways. Through the dynamic simulation model, the economic costs and carbon emissions of each transition pathway are evaluated. The simulation results give a range of the total system costs and carbon emissions of China’s transition to a low-carbon power system during the transition period of 2016 to 2030.