Agricultural non-point sources and their effects on chlorophyll-a in a eutrophic lake over three decades (1985–2020)

Erhai Lake is the second largest freshwater lake in Yunnan Province but suffers from the deterioration of water quality and agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP). However, little is known about the influence of ANPSP on the water quality of Erhai Lake. The export coefficient model (ECM) was used to obtain the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads from ANPSP in Erhai Lake Basin (ELB). The trophic status of Erhai Lake as influenced by such sources of nutrient input was also been assessed. Results indicated that the TN and TP loads in ELB increased from 1985 to 2005 due to sustainable agricultural development; thereafter, the TN and TP loads decreased from 2005 to 2020, indicating that agricultural pollution prevention improved in ELB. The northern part of ELB had higher pollution intensity than the southern part and the central part, indicating that the ecosystem in the northern part of ELB appeared to be vulnerable. Driving force analysis showed that cattle breeding was the main reason for the exported TN loads in most watersheds, and intensive agricultural planting was the major contributor to TP loads. The mean annual Chl-a concentration had a strong correlation with the TN and TP loads exported from north of ELB, and this finding suggested that ANPSP could lead to eutrophication. The results of this study demonstrate the impacts of agricultural activities on water quality at the watershed scale and provide a scientific foundation for lake management decision-making.