Prediction of lung cancer risk based on age and smoking history

•Although a number of computational models exist for predicting the risk of dying of lung cancer in any year of life as a function of age and smoking history, their predictions are quite variable and the models themselves can be complex to implement.•We have developed a simple empirical model of the risk of dying of lung cancer that is mathematically constrained to produce biologically appropriate probability predictions as a function of current age, smoking start age, quit age, and smoking intensity.•This simple model is easily implemented and may serve as a useful tool in situations where the mortality risks of smoking need to be estimated.