Numerical characterization of astronaut CaOx renal stone incidence rates to quantify in-flight and post-flight relative risk

Changes in urine chemistry potentially alter the risk of renal stone formation in astronauts. Quantifying spaceflight renal stone incidence risk compared to pre-flight levels remains a significant challenge for assessing the appropriate vehicle, mission, and countermeasure design. A computational biochemistry model representing CaOx crystal precipitation, growth, and agglomeration is combined with a probabilistic analysis to predict the in- and post-flight CaOx renal stone incidence risk ratio (IRR) relative to pre-flight values using 1517 astronaut 24-h urine chemistries. Our simulations predict that in-flight fluid intake alone would need to increase from current prescriptions of 2.0–2.5 L/day to ~3.2 L/day to approach the CaOx IRR of the pre-flight population. Bone protective interventions would reduce CaOx risk to pre-flight levels if Ca excretion alone is reduced to <150 mg/day or if current levels are diminished to 190 mg/day in combination with increasing fluid intake to 2.5–2.7 L/day. This analysis provides a quantitative risk assessment that can influence the critical balance between engineering and astronaut health requirements.