Development of a risk assessment model to predict the occurrence of late blowing defect in Gouda cheese and evaluate potential intervention strategies

Late blowing defect (LBD) is an important spoilage issue in semi-hard cheese, with the outgrowth of Clostridium tyrobutyricum spores during cheese aging considered to be the primary cause. Although previous studies have explored the microbial and physicochemical factors influencing the defect, a risk assessment tool that allows for improved and rational management of LBD is lacking. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model to estimate the probability of LBD in Gouda cheese and evaluate different intervention strategies. The spore concentration distribution of butyric acid bacteria (BAB) in bulk tank milk was obtained from 8 dairy farms over 12 mo. The concentration of C. tyrobutyricum from raw milk to the end of aging was simulated based on Gouda brined for 2 d in saturated brine at 8°C and aged at 13°C. Predicted C. tyrobutyricum concentrations during aging and estimated concentration thresholds in cheese at onset of LBD were used to predict product loss due to LBD during a simulated 1-yr production. With the estimated concentration thresholds in cheese ranging from 4.36 to 4.46 log most probable number (MPN)/kg of cheese, the model predicted that 9.2% (±1.7%) of Gouda cheese showed LBD by d 60; cheeses predicted to show LBD at d 60 showed a mean pH of 5.39 and were produced with raw milk with a mean BAB spore count of 143 MPN/L. By d 90, 36.1% (±3.4%) of cheeses were predicted to show LBD, indicating that LBD typically manifests between d 60 and 90, which is consistent with observations from the literature and the cheese industry. Sensitivity analysis indicated that C. tyrobutyricum maximum growth rate as well as concentration threshold in cheese at onset of LBD are the most important variables, identifying key data needs for development of more accurate models. The implementation of microfiltration or bactofugation of raw milk (assumed to show 98% efficiency of spore removal) in our model prevented occurrence of LBD during the first 60 d of aging. Overall, our findings provide a framework for predicting the occurrence of LBD in Gouda as well as other cheeses and illustrate the value of developing digital tools for managing dairy product quality.