Duration of postoperative hyperlactatemia has predictive value in recurrent fistula after major definitive surgery for intestinal fistula

Purpose The present study aimed to identify the predictive value of duration of postoperative hyperlactatemia in screening patients at high risk of recurrent fistula after major definitive surgery (DS) for intestinal fistula. Methods If the initial postoperative lactate (IPL) > 2 mmol/L, DS was defined as major definitive surgery. The 315 enrolled patients with major DS were divided into group A (2 mmol/L < IPL ≤ 4 mmol/L), group B (mmol/L < IPL ≤ 6 mmol/L), and group C (IPL > 6 mmol/L). The characteristics of patients were collected, and the duration of postoperative hyperlactatemia was analyzed. According to the occurrence of recurrent fistula (RF), patients were further divided into RF group A, and Non-RF group A; RF group B, and Non-RF group B; and RF group C, and Non-RF group C. Results The duration of postoperative hyperlactatemia was comparable between the RF group A and the Non-RF group A [12 (IQR: 12–24) vs 24 (IQR: 12–24), p = 0.387]. However, the duration of hyperlactatemia was associated with RF in group B (adjusted OR = 1.061; 95% CI: 1.029–1.094; p < 0.001) and group C (adjusted OR = 1.059; 95% CI: 1.012–1.129; p = 0.017). In group B, the cutoff point of duration of 42 h had the optimal predictive value (area under ROC = 0.791, sensitivity = 0.717, specificity = 0.794, p < 0.001). In group C, the cutoff point of duration of 54 h had the optimal predictive value (area under ROC = 0.781, sensitivity = 0.730, specificity = 0.804, p < 0.001). Conclusion The duration of postoperative hyperlactatemia has a value in predicting RF in patients with an IPL of more than 4 mmol/L after major definitive surgery for intestinal fistula.