Towards transboundary networks of climate-smart marine reserves in the Southern California Bight

Nur Arafeh-Dalmau, Adrian Munguia-Vega,Fiorenza Micheli, Ainoa Vilalta-Navas,Juan Carlos Villasenor-Derbez, Magdalena Précoma-de la Mora,David S. Schoeman,Alfonso Medellín-Ortíz,Kyle C. Cavanaugh, Oscar Sosa-Nishizaki,Theresa L.U. Burnham, Christopher J. Knight,C. Brock Woodson, Marina Abas,Alicia Abadía-Cardoso,Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Michael W. Esgro,Noemi Espinosa-Andrade,Rodrigo Beas-Luna, Nirari Cardenas, Mark H. Carr,Katherine E. Dale, Frida Cisneros-Soberanis,Ana Laura Flores-Morales, Stuart Fulton,Emiliano García-Rodríguez, Alfredo Giron-Nava,Mary G. Gleason, Alison L. Green,Arturo Hernández-Velasco, Beatriz Ibarra-Macías, Andrew F. Johnson,Julio Lorda, Luis Malpica-Cruz,Gabriela Montaño-Moctezuma, Carolina Olguín-Jacobson,Alejandro Parés-Sierra, Peter T. Raimondi, Georgina Ramírez-Ortiz,Arturo Ramirez-Valdez, Héctor Reyes-Bonilla,Emily Saarman, Luz Erandi Saldaña-Ruiz,Alexandra Smith, Cecilia Soldatini,Alvin Suárez, Guillermo Torres-Moye,Mariana Walther, Elizabeth Burke Watson, Sara Worden,Hugh P. Possingham

biorxiv(2022)

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摘要
Climate-smart conservation addresses the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change impacts but may require transboundary considerations. Here, we adapt and refine 16 biophysical guidelines for climate-smart marine reserves for the transboundary California Bight ecoregion. We link several climate-adaptation strategies (e.g., maintaining connectivity, representing climate refugia, and forecasting effectiveness of protection) by focusing on kelp forests and associated species. We quantify transboundary larval connectivity along ∼800 km of coast and find that the number of connections and the average density of larvae dispersing through the network under future climate scenarios could decrease by ∼50%, highlighting the need to protect critical steppingstone nodes. We also find that although focal species will generally recover with 30% protection, marine heatwaves could hinder subsequent recovery in the following 50 years, suggesting that protecting climate refugia and expanding the coverage of marine reserves is a priority. Together, these findings provide a first comprehensive framework for integrating climate resilience for networks of marine reserves and highlight the need for a coordinated approach in the California Bight ecoregion. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.
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