Simulation of gas consumption process based on the mathematical model in the form of cyclic random process considering the scale factors.

The article deals with the problem of constructing a new mathematical model of gas consumption process in which, in contrast to the known mathematical model, in the form of an additive combination of three components: cyclic random process, trend component, and stochastic residue, the component in the form of a cyclic random process with taking into account the scale factors, is introduced. Based on segmentation using the Caterpillar method, ten components of singular decomposition are obtained. The sum of nine components of singular decomposition forms the cyclic component, the cyclic random process. This component takes into account the scale factors of gas consumption range on every segment cycle. The trend component of mathematical model is the second component of singular decomposition and stochastic residue, which is formed on the basis difference of values of the studied gas consumption process and the sum of cyclic and trend components. In the research, computer simulation of gas consumption process on the basis of the known model and the new one is carried out and simulation errors with the real gas consumption process are estimated. The computer simulation results are compared in accordance with the proposed mathematical model and the known one. The use of the proposed mathematical model considering the cyclic component as a random cyclic process with cyclic structure and scale factors allowed to increase the accuracy of computer simulation which is evidenced by the obtained error estimation results.