Screening for diabetes and impaired glucose metabolism in Qatar: models’ development and validation

Aim To establish two scoring models for identifying individuals at risk of developing Impaired Glucose Metabolism (IGM) and Type two Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in Qatari. Materials and Methods A sample of 2000 individuals, from Qatar BioBank, was evaluated to determine features predictive of T2DM and IGM. Another sample of 1000 participants was obtained for external validation of the models. Several scoring models screening for T2DM were evaluated and compared to the model proposed by this study. Results Age, gender, waist-to-hip-ratio, history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia, and levels of educational were statistically associated with the risk of T2DM and constituted the Qatari diabetes risk score (QDRISK). Along with, the 6 aforementioned variables, the IGM model showed that BMI was statistically significant. The QDRISK performed well with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.870 and 0.815 in the development and external validation cohort, respectively. The QDRISK showed overall better accuracy and calibration compared to other evaluated scores. The IGM model showed good accuracy and calibration, AUCs 0.796 vs. 0.774 in the development and external validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusions This study developed a Qatari-specific risk scores to identify high risk individuals and can guide the development of a nationwide primary prevention program. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research did not receive any grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the QBB Institutional Review Board (Ex-2018-RES-ACC-0097-0043). All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Although the corresponding authors Khaled Sadeq ks1511880@qu.edu.qa; and Ibrahim Abdelhafez, ia1409078@qu.edu.qa, 2713 Doha, Qatar; wish to make data regarding this manuscript available online or through request, we declare that it cannot be made available under the policies of QBB related to data-sharing and participants' confidentiality.