Aviation fuel and emissions in air markets with interregional passenger leakage

Attractive air services at large airports in the U.S., over the last two decades, have encouraged interregional air passenger leakage, a phenomenon in which air travelers abandon their nearby small airports in favor of starting their air journeys from large hub airports farther away. The disparities between small and large airports, in terms of air services, are expected to widen because of COVID-19 and further exacerbate passenger leakage. This study estimates the differences in mean aviation fuel consumed and pollutants emitted between air routes from small and large airports in the U.S. Midwest region - routes that are known to be contested according to analysis of an air ticket dataset. Findings indicate that air journeys originating from large airports result in 24% less aviation fuel consumption and considerably lower emissions at the passenger kilometer level, offering additional insight toward better understanding the environmental impact of a geographically shifting air travel demand.