Open access to orbit and runaway space debris growth

As Earth’s orbital space fills with satellites and debris, debris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies become more likely. Runaway space debris growth, known as Kessler Syndrome, may render Earth’s orbits unusable for centuries. We present a dynamic physicoeconomic model of Earth orbit use under rational expectations with endogenous collision risk and Kessler Syndrome. When satellites can be destroyed in collisions with debris and other satellites, there is a manifold of open-access equilibria rather than a unique equilibrium. When debris can collide to produce more debris, this manifold allows Kessler Syndrome to occur along equilibrium paths. We show open access is increasingly and inefficiently likely to cause Kessler Syndrome as satellites become more profitable, highlighting the need for orbital-use management. JEL codes: Q28, Q54, Q55