Prediction of Defensive Player Trajectories in NFL Games with Defender CNN-LSTM Model

Defensive players in football have complex trajectory patterns that are hard to accurately model and evaluate. This is due to the defenders’ inherently reactive role, which requires them to dynamically respond to offensive strategies and on-the-spot decisions by the quarterback. Amongst defensive players, defensive backs are the most challenging to model. They often travel long distances during passing plays to fulfill their coverage responsibilities and change trajectories depending on their perception of where the ball will go. This is in contrast to other defensive players, whose total distance travelled and directions of movement are generally much more limited.