Estimating the lagged effect of price discounting: a time-series study using transaction data of sugar sweetened beverages.

Background: Price discount is an unregulated obesogenic environmental risk factor for the purchasing of unhealthy food, including Sugar Sweetened Beverages (SSB). Sales of price discounted food items are known to increase during the period of discounting. However, the presence and extent of the lagged effect of discounting, a sustained level of sales after discounting ends, is previously unaccounted for. We investigated the presence of the lagged effect of discounting on the sales of five SSB categories, which are soda, fruits juice, sport and energy drink, sweetened coffee and tea, and sweetened drinkable yogurt. Methods: We fitted a distributed lag model to weekly volume-standardized sales and percent discounting generated by a supermarket in Montreal, Canada between 2008 and 2013. Results: While the sales of SSB increased during the period of discounting, there was no evidence of a prominent lagged effect of discounting in four of the five SSB; the exception was sports and energy drinks, where a posterior mean of 28,459 servings (95% credible interval: 2,661 to 67,253) of excess sales can be attributed to the lagged effect in the target store during the study period. Conclusions: Our results indicate that previous studies may have underestimated the effect of price discounting for some food categories.