Multinational Corporations and Political Violence: Trends and Forecasts

Multinational corporations (MNCs) increasingly worry about the threat of targeted violence, particularly in the form of terrorist attacks. Why do terrorists target MNCs and which factors are sufficiently predictive to matter to decision makers? We identify potential theoretical explanations from the literature on MNCs and transnational terrorism. Then, using conflict forecasting methods, we show the best predictors are whether a country experienced attacks before, and whether such attacks are common in the region. In addition, exogenous factors such as income improve performance, but many of the typical explanations for transnational terrorism, such as those involving regime type, do not help to identify MNC targets. Furthermore, despite using multiple behavioral and economic measures of MNC activity, it does not appear that their actions have much of an impact on whether MNCs are targeted. Future research on corporate targets of political violence would benefit from analysis at the firm and group level.