Landslide Kinematics Inferred from in Situ Measurements: the Cliets Rock-Slide (savoie, French Alps)

This paper presents an analysis of two large rock toppling/sliding events which occurred in January 2014 and February 2019 at the Cliets unstable slope (Savoie, French Alps). To understand the mechanism involved and its control by external forcings, a multi-technique analysis approach is used combining geological observations, meteorological data analysis, topographic measurements and simple physical modeling. The pre-failure stage of the events is more particularly analyzed. No direct relationships are found between triggering factors and surface motion though a kinematics analysis highlights the transition toppling-sliding. It showed that, at first order, this transition occurred 4 years before the first failure of 2014, while it happened 2 months before the second failure of 2019. From this date, the environment is considered like a block sliding on an inclined plane. By applying a frictional model (Helmstetter et al. in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 109(B2), 2004), we illustrated that the two events belong to an unstable velocity-weakening sliding regime. The time to failure (Voight in Science 243(4888):200–203, 1989) is forecasted with the model, and the results are consistent with the observations. They confirm that the gravitational factor is predominant over the triggering factors for the two events.