Developing fragility curves for asphalt mixture to assess the uncertainty of the permanent deformation performance

This study aims to develop a fragility analysis methodology for asphalt mixture to assess the uncertainty of the permanent deformation development of asphalt mixture subjected to repeated load based on parallel tests. The methods to determine limit states and damage states for the permanent deformation process based on characteristic points at the strain rate curve were proposed. The distribution types of characteristic points were tested, and the corresponding probability distribution function was employed to plot fragility curves for limit states. According to the relationship between limit states and damage states, fragility curves for damage states were established subsequently.