Seasonal variation and change trends for quit smoking: evidence from Internet search engine query data

Background: The outcomes of smoking have generated considerable clinical interest in recent years. Although people from different countries are more interested in the topic of quit smoking during the winter, few studies have tested this hypothesis. The current study aimed to quantify public interest in quitting smoking via Google. Methods: We use Google Trends to obtain the Internet search query volume for terms relating to quit smoking in major northern and southern hemisphere countries in this research. Normally search volumes for the term “quit smoking + stop smoking + smoking-cessation” were retrieved within the USA, the UK, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand and Australia from January 2004 to December 2018. Seasonal effects were investigated using cosinor analysis and seasonal decomposition of time series models. Results: Significant seasonal variation patterns in those search terms were revealed by cosinor analysis and demonstrated by the evidence from Google Trends analysis in the representative countries including the USA ( p cos = 2.36×10 -7 ), the UK ( p cos < 2.00×10 -16 ), Canada ( p cos < 2.00×10 -16 ), Ireland ( p cos <2.00×10 -16 ) ,Australia ( p cos = 5.13×10 -6 ) and New Zealand ( p cos = 4.87×10 -7 ). Time series plots emphasized the consistency of seasonal trends with peaks in winter / late autumn by repeating in nearly all years. The overall trend of search volumes for quitting smoking, observed by dynamic series analysis, has declined from 2004 to 2018. Conclusions: The preliminary evidence from Google Trends search tool showed a significant seasonal variation and a decreasing trend for the RSV of quit smoking. Our novel findings in smoking-cessation epidemiology need to be verified with further studies, and the mechanisms underlying these findings must be clarified.