Research on the Impact of the Election of Different American Candidates on China's Economy Based on the Perspective of Mathematical Modeling

This article analyzes the impact of the two candidates Trump and Biden on the Chinese economy by establishing a mathematical model for the 2020 U.S. election, and uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process to quantitatively process the relevant policies introduced or proposed by the two, and then adopts TOPSIS the method is used to sort out the policy rankings of the two trends, and establish a set of evaluation models. It is found that China's semiconductor industry is most affected. Finally, the gray prediction algorithm is used to predict the development trend of China's semiconductor industry after the technology blockade policy. 1. Preface The 2020 US general election is a "closed" competition between the Republican incumbent Trump and the Democratic challenger Biden. Democratic candidate Biden and Republican candidate Trump are evenly matched. Trump and Biden have completely different attitudes towards international trade. Trump's election will reduce the trade surplus of countries that have a large trade surplus with the United States. The most affected may be China and other Asian economies. The election of Biden will have a greater advantage over Trump for the economic development of the United States, and Sino-US trade relations may be eased. The election of Trump and Biden will have a certain impact on the US economy, the Chinese economy and the world economy 2. Research status Scholars analyzed the impact of the United States on my country’s economy from different perspectives. For example, Zhao Dongxi (2019) analyzed the impact of the normalization of U.S. monetary policy on China’s economy. They believed that U.S. interest rate hikes would have a negative effect on China’s asset prices; the U.S. reduced its balance sheet. The short-term impact on China's output is positive, and the impact is greater than the impact of interest rate hikes. Yu Ziwei (2018) analyzed the impact of technical barriers in the United States on China’s economy from the causes of technical barriers. He believed that the US’s launch of technical barriers would do more harm than good to my country’s export economy, damage my country’s economic interests, and bring my country’s export trade. There are many negative effects. Yu Hongda (2016) analyzed the possible policy trends of Trump after he was elected President of the United States and its impact on my country's economy. It is believed that the election of Trump has increased the uncertainty of US future policies, but the essence of Sino-US relations will not change significantly. Wu Xinbo (2020) believes that the direction of the Biden administration's China policy mainly involves three aspects. One is the focus of its governance, the other is what constraints he will be subject to from home and abroad, and the third is its China policy choices. Weiping Liu (2020) studied the US currency in the post-financial crisis period and found that the implementation of the US quantitative easing monetary policy will eventually lead to a comprehensive decline in the Chinese stock market, a downturn in the bond market, and a complex situation of depreciation of the RMB against the US 2021 5th International Conference on Education, Management and Social Science (EMSS 2021) Copyright © (2021) Francis Academic Press, UK DOI: 10.25236/emss.2021.052 305 dollar. Li Junjiu (2020) analyzes from six dimensions the economic rationality of open interest groups in the United States, the behavioral orientation of other economies, and China's structural national competitive advantages, which constitute an important constraint on the United States' economic and trade regulations with China. In response, China needs to determine the "whole government" strategic model, understand the scientific connotation of the "double cycle", implement the established policy of reform and opening up, and attach importance to the strategic significance of the "Belt and Road" initiative. Jia Qingguo (2020) analyzes that after the Biden administration takes office, Sino-US relations will most likely have a relationship of competition and cooperation. However, whether the future Sino-US competition is vicious or benign depends largely on the two countries. of interaction. Yu Xiang (2020) believes that the Biden administration will make adjustments to "national security", but generally will not relax. Second, the next U.S. government's policy toward China not only depends on the policy propositions of the new president and the political parties behind him, but is also subject to the overall domestic political environment in the United States. From a deeper perspective, the subsequent changes in Americans' views on China depend more on their domestic social reform processes. Finally, a series of "bad law toolboxes" restricting Chinese companies have certain policy inertia. Li Xiao (2020) believes that the United States tends to use rules and systems to maintain its control and governance of the world. It will take "value demands" and "realistic interests" as the leading factor to influence and control the establishment of new multilateral rules, trying to contain both The opponent maintains hegemony. We cannot ignore or underestimate this. The studies of the above-mentioned scholars all show that the Trump administration has had a huge impact on the Chinese economy during its administration, which has caused considerable pressure on the Chinese economy. And this article aims to study the impact of the Trump administration and the Biden administration on the Chinese economy, especially China's semiconductor industry. 3. The influence of different candidates on China's economy 3.1 Use analytic hierarchy process to quantify influencing factors Through Trump and Biden’s policies, the following influencing factors were introduced: (1) Allied Russia system plan (2) Strengthening US-Taiwan relations to split China (3) Creating troubles around China (4) Suppressing and hollowing out the Chinese economy (5) Blocking 5G technology and restricting the import of goods into China. First, the analytic hierarchy process is used to quantify the above six influencing factors, referring to the scale Table 1 of the paired comparison matrix. Table 1 Analytic hierarchy process used to quantify the six influencing factors Scale Meaning 1 Said, compared to two factors have the same importance 3 Said compared to two factors, one factor is slightly more important than another factor 5 Said compared to two factors, one factor than another factor, obviously important 7 Said compared to two factors, one factor than another factor, highly important 9 Said compared to two factors, one factor than the other factors, is extremely important 2,4,6,8 The above two adjacent judgment of values The bottom Factor i and j is the judgment of the ij a , the factor j compared to i judgment matrix 1/ ji ij a a = The Table 2 obtained by quantifying the six factors is as follows: