4DVAR HF radar assimilation South of Africa

The oceanic circulation south of Africa is characterized by a complex dynamics with a strong variability due to the presence of the Agulhas current and numerous eddies. The area of interest of this paper, is also the location of several natural gas fields under seafloor which are targeted for drilling and exploitation.The complex and powerful ocean currents induce significant issues for ship operations at the surface as well as under the surface for deep sea operations. Therefore, the knowledge of the state of the currents and the ability to forecast them in a realistic manner could greatly enforce the safety of various marine operation. Following this objective an array of HF radar systems was deployed to allow a detailed knowledge of the Agulhas currents and its associated eddy activity. It is shown in this study that 4DVAR assimilation of HF radar allow to represent the surface circulation more realistically. Two kind of experiments have been performed, a one-month analysis and two days forecast. The one-month 4DVAR experiment have been compared to geostrophic currents issued from altimeters and highlight an important improvement of the geostrophic currents. Furthermore, despite the restricted size of the area covered with HF radar, we show that the solution is improved almost in the whole domain, mainly upstream and downstream of the HF radar's covered area. We also show that while benefits of the assimilation on the surface current intensity is significantly reduced in the first 6 hours of the forecast, the correction in direction persists after 48 hours.